Global Heated Tobacco Product User Estimates, 2014-2024: Descriptive Surveillance Study Using Manufacturer...

Area of Science:

• Tobacco control research
• Epidemiology
• Public health surveillance

Background:

• Heated tobacco products (HTPs) have seen rapid global expansion since 2014.
• Limited comparable global estimates of HTP users exist due to inconsistent national surveys and surveillance systems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To create a reproducible global time series of HTP user estimates from 2014-2024.
• To quantify uncertainty in HTP user estimates.
• To compare manufacturer-disclosed data with survey-based prevalence data.

Main Methods:

• Compiled annual HTP user counts and shipment volumes from tobacco company disclosures.
• Estimated user numbers by converting shipment volumes using brand-specific consumption assumptions.
• Conducted sensitivity analysis excluding company user counts and using literature-based consumption parameters.
• Compared estimates with user counts derived from national prevalence data in 35 countries.

Main Results:

• Global HTP users reached an estimated 48.9 million in 2024 (range: 45.6-52.1 million) in the primary series.
• A shipment-only series yielded higher estimates (67.9 million; range: 59.7-78.7 million).
• Survey-based estimates for 35 countries indicated 21.8 million users, reflecting partial geographic coverage.

Conclusions:

• A transparent, updateable global time series demonstrates significant HTP growth from 2014-2024.
• 2024 global HTP user estimates range from 45.6 to 78.7 million, depending on the methodology.
• Incorporating standardized HTP measures into national surveys will improve future estimates and reduce uncertainty.