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School Dropout and Adolescent Homicides in São Paulo: A Case-Control Study on Programmatic Vulnerability
Marcelo Ryngelblum1, Maria Fernanda Tourinho Peres2
1Departamento de Medicina Preventiva, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, Av. Dr. Arnaldo, 455 - Cerqueira César, São Paulo, 01246-903, SP, Brazil. marceloryn@usp.br.
Journal of Prevention (2022)
|April 20, 2026
Summary
Adolescent homicide in Brazil is linked to school dropout, a significant vulnerability marker. While justice system involvement partially explains this association, especially for males, school disengagement remains a predominant risk factor for lethal victimization.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Criminology
- Sociology
Background:
- Adolescent homicide presents a critical public health issue in Brazil.
- School dropout is increasingly recognized as a potential risk factor for violence exposure.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between school dropout and homicide death among adolescents in São Paulo.
- To explore the mediating role of justice system involvement in this relationship.
Main Methods:
- A population-based case-control study utilizing police and school records.
- Involved 939 adolescent homicide cases (ages 10-19) and 939 matched controls.
- Conditional logistic regression and mediation analysis were employed.
Main Results:
- School dropout was strongly associated with homicide for both males (ORadj=5.54) and females (ORadj=5.23).
- Justice system involvement significantly mediated the association, particularly for males (25% mediation).
- Despite mediation, direct association between dropout and homicide remained predominant.
Conclusions:
- School dropout is a key vulnerability indicator for adolescent homicide.
- Interventions addressing school disengagement and justice system involvement are crucial.
- Understanding these linked pathways can inform violence prevention strategies.
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