Six-year reconviction follow-up of a medium-secure cohort

We explored interactions between criminogenic risk, discharge routes and reconvictions in a contemporary cohort of people following medium-secure care. Data from the Offenders Index were used to estimate actuarial risk for reconviction and to determine 6-year reconviction outcomes for 205 consecutive discharges from a single medium-secure service (1999-2017). Clinical details were sourced from healthcare records.

Preadmission risk was lowest for people discharged to open settings, but equivalent between those discharged to secure care or prison. Both violent and any offence reconviction outcomes were more frequent for people discharged to prison than either locked units or open conditions at all the three follow-up points (2, 4 and 6 years).

Prison discharge negated large reductions in reconvictions observed with alternative discharge routes. Actuarial risk assessment has a place in evaluating the effectiveness public protection provided by secure services.