Toward greenhouse gas neutrality: China's post-2030 transition pathway and policy

Global climate targets require massive economic transformations to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) neutrality by mid-century. China, as the world's largest emitter, has pledged to peak carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. Current domestic policies primarily target the 2030 CO₂ peaking objective, whereas the specific scope and actionable measures for the 2060 neutrality goal remain unclear. However, the critical differences in socioeconomic and technological pathways between realizing CO₂ neutrality versus comprehensive GHG neutrality are not yet well understood. Here we show that achieving GHG neutrality by 2060 demands unprecedented, cross-sectoral mitigation efforts far exceeding those required for CO₂ neutrality. Using a multi-model integrated framework, we demonstrate that GHG neutrality requires a 100% elimination of energy-related CO₂ emissions, compared with a 92% reduction under CO₂ neutrality. Furthermore, non-CO₂ emissions must be slashed by 60% instead of 50%, and the technical demand for carbon capture must expand from 1.3 to 1.9 gigatonnes of CO₂. Reaching this target requires a 15% reduction in total GHG emissions by 2035 and an 85% reduction by 2050 relative to 2030 levels. The findings indicate the necessity of a 2035-focused medium-term climate strategy to connect current policies with long-term objectives. Implementation of these comprehensive roadmaps is essential for directing the broader economy toward sustainable global climate governance.