Land Use and Land Cover Stability Across Protection Regimes in a Tropical River Basin

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Environmental Science
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Tropical frontiers face significant land transformations impacting biodiversity and ecosystem resilience.
• Agricultural expansion is a primary driver of these rapid land-use changes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess cumulative landscape stability across different protection levels in the Araguaia River Basin.
• To analyze long-term land-use patterns and their relationship with conservation status.

Main Methods:

• Utilized annual land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1985 to 2022 (MapBiomas Collection 8).
• Assessed cumulative landscape stability by quantifying area transitions over nearly four decades.
• Compared dynamics across unprotected, sustainable use, and fully protected areas.

Main Results:

• Unprotected areas exhibited the largest losses of Natural Forest and Savanna, with less than 50% remaining unchanged.
• Fully protected areas demonstrated the highest stability, with over 80% showing no accumulated land cover transitions.
• Environmental degradation was more frequent in unprotected zones, while restoration efforts were spatially variable.

Conclusions:

• Landscape dynamics vary significantly across protection categories, influencing long-term land-use patterns.
• Conservation planning and land management strategies must consider these distinct dynamics for effective tropical frontier management.
• Spatially explicit cumulative assessments are crucial for understanding and mitigating land transformation impacts.