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  1. Home
  2. Temporal Reproducibility Of A Genetic Algorithm-derived Health Risk Score: Standardized Out-of-fold Validation Framework (2021-2023).
  1. Home
  2. Temporal Reproducibility Of A Genetic Algorithm-derived Health Risk Score: Standardized Out-of-fold Validation Framework (2021-2023).

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Temporal Reproducibility of a Genetic Algorithm-Derived Health Risk Score: Standardized Out-of-Fold Validation

Yoichiro Aoki1, Hiroki Takeda2, Kinichi Yokota3

  • 1Yoshida Hospital-Keiyukai Medical Corporation, 1-2, Nishi 4-chome, 4-jyo, Asahikawa, Hokkaido, 070-0054, Japan, 81 166-23-0685.

JMIR Bioinformatics and Biotechnology
|April 21, 2026

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study demonstrates that a genetic algorithm (GA)-derived health risk score is temporally reproducible across three annual cohorts. Standardized evaluation ensures reliable health risk stratification for preventive screening.

Keywords:
AUCROCarea under the receiver operating characteristic curvecross-validationgenetic algorithmhealth risk scoringpreventive medicinereproducibility

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Area of Science:

  • Data-driven health risk stratification
  • Preventive health screening methodologies
  • Computational health analytics

Background:

  • Genetic algorithm (GA)-based scoring offers a data-driven approach for health risk stratification.
  • Performance estimates require strict separation of preprocessing, optimization, and evaluation within a validation framework.
  • Temporal reproducibility and uncertainty quantification are crucial for translational reliability in health screening.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Evaluate the temporal reproducibility of a GA-derived composite health risk score across three annual cohorts (2021-2023).
  • Assess the score's robustness to missing HbA1c data using a sensitivity analysis.
  • Validate the score under a standardized out-of-fold (OOF) evaluation pipeline.

Main Methods:

  • Analyzed annual health examination datasets (2021-2023) with an identical preprocessing and modeling pipeline.
  • Included 13 clinical indicators and 8 lifestyle variables; outcome based on A-D grading framework.
  • Employed stratified K-fold cross-validation for GA optimization and logistic regression for OOF probability prediction; quantified performance using AUC and Brier score.

Main Results:

  • Out-of-fold AUC values remained stable across cohorts (0.810-0.814) with overlapping confidence intervals.
  • Brier scores indicated consistent overall predictive performance (0.172-0.176).
  • Excluding HbA1c minimally impacted discrimination, confirming robustness.

Conclusions:

  • The GA-derived composite risk score demonstrates stable temporal discrimination and consistent predictive performance.
  • Highlights the importance of standardized, prespecified evaluation frameworks for risk stratification models.
  • Transparent uncertainty quantification is essential for validating models using routine health screening data.