Beyond Local Footprints: Disentangling Large-Scale Redistribution and Local Abundance Responses to Offshore Wind...

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Conservation biology
• Spatial ecology

Background:

• Assessing human impacts on animal distribution is crucial but challenging due to multiple influencing factors.
• Existing methods struggle to disentangle large-scale redistribution from local abundance changes caused by human activities.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a novel modelling framework to quantify human impacts on animal populations, specifically large-scale redistribution and local abundance changes.
• To assess the impact of offshore wind farms (OWF) on common murre (Uria aalge) populations in the German North Sea.

Main Methods:

• Combined regression and mechanistic modelling using partial differential equations to simulate redistribution patterns.
• Integrated simulated redistribution patterns into species distribution models with anthropogenic and environmental covariates.
• Applied the framework to analyze OWF impacts on common murres in the German North Sea.

Main Results:

• OWF constructed by 2019 reduced common murre numbers in German waters by 18.3%.
• Planned OWF expansion could lead to a predicted 77.7% reduction in common murre numbers within German waters.
• The model accounts for both large-scale redistribution and local abundance changes.

Conclusions:

• The developed framework effectively quantifies and predicts human-induced effects on animal populations, including redistribution.
• Offshore wind farm expansion poses a significant threat to common murre populations in the German North Sea.
• This approach supports transparent impact assessments for marine spatial planning and renewable energy development.