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Prognostic Value of PALBI in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Concurrent Chronic Kidney Disease: A Nomogram
Jihye Lim1,2, Seok-Hwan Kim1,3, Myeong Jun Song1,3
1The Catholic University Liver Research Center, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Insights
Prognosis for liver cancer (HCC) with kidney disease (CKD) is complex. The PALBI score and a new nomogram offer improved survival prediction for these patients.
Area of Science:
- Hepatology
- Nephrology
- Oncology
Background:
- Prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is influenced by tumor burden, liver function, and comorbidities like chronic kidney disease (CKD).
- Existing prognostic models have not been systematically evaluated for patients with both HCC and CKD.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the predictive accuracy of established liver-specific prognostic models in patients with HCC and CKD.
- To develop a novel nomogram for individualized survival prediction in this patient population.
Main Methods:
- A nationwide multicenter cohort study included 1201 treatment-naive patients with newly diagnosed HCC and concurrent CKD.
- Prognostic performance for overall survival was assessed using Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, ALBI, and PALBI scores.
Main Results:
- The PALBI score demonstrated favorable discriminative ability for survival prediction at 3, 6, and 12 months (AUROC 0.871, 0.857, 0.833).
- A nomogram integrating PALBI grade with clinical factors (age, AFP, CKD stage, BCLC stage, treatment) provided well-calibrated individualized survival estimates.
Conclusions:
- The PALBI score offers comparable prognostic performance to other liver-specific models in HCC patients with CKD, utilizing objective laboratory parameters.
- The developed nomogram serves as a practical tool for personalized risk stratification and treatment decisions in this complex patient group.
Aim:
Prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depends not only on tumor burden but also on liver function and comorbidities, particularly chronic kidney disease (CKD). Although several prognostic models exist, their performance in patients with HCC and CKD has not been systematically evaluated. This study compared the predictive accuracy of liver-specific models and developed a nomogram for individualized survival prediction.
Methods:
We conducted a nationwide multicenter cohort study of 1201 treatment-naive patients newly diagnosed with HCC and concurrent CKD. Prognostic performance for overall survival was assessed for Child-Pugh, MELD, MELD-Na, MELD 3.0, ALBI, and PALBI scores.
Results:
The mean age was 70.4 ± 10.7 years, and 72.6% were male. Over a mean follow-up of 37.8 months, 1017 deaths occurred with an incidence rate of 269.1 per 1000 person-years. Among prognostic models, PALBI showed favorable discriminative ability with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.871, 0.857, and 0.833 at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. Concordance index values were generally comparable among the models, with the PALBI-based model demonstrating consistent and reliable performance across most clinical subgroups. A nomogram incorporating age, AFP, CKD stage, BCLC stage, treatment modality, and PALBI grade provided individualized survival estimates with good calibration.
Conclusions:
In patients with HCC and CKD, PALBI showed comparable prognostic performance to other liver-specific models, while maintaining clinical applicability based exclusively on objective laboratory parameters. The proposed nomogram, integrating PALBI with clinical and tumor factors, may serve as a practical tool to support personalized risk stratification and treatment decision-making in this complex population.
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