Ranked and at risk: Relative academic position in school and receiving social assistance in adulthood

This study examines whether pupils' relative academic position within their school cohort predicts social assistance receipt in early adulthood, net of absolute performance and family background. Using Swedish population-wide register data for cohorts completing grade 9 between 1990 and 1997, the analysis compares pupils with similar national achievement who occupy different rank positions within their school. School-by-cohort fixed effects, detailed socioeconomic controls, and interactions between GPA and school achievement distributions account for between-school differences and parental sorting. The results show that pupils at the bottom of their school's academic hierarchy are more likely to receive social assistance at ages 20-24, even when their national performance matches that of higher-ranked peers. This association weakens over the life course and is small by ages 30-34. Effects are stronger among women and individuals with an immigrant background, indicating that relative academic position interacts with gendered and structural inequalities during the transition to adulthood. Overall, the findings suggest that early life-course inequalities are shaped not only by absolute achievement but also by individuals' relative position within local educational contexts.