Alcohol-driven phenotypic transition in MASLD and risk of liver-related events

Changes in the amount of alcohol consumption among individuals with steatotic liver disease (SLD) result in shifts between the phenotypes of metabolic dysfunction-associated SLD (MASLD), MASLD with increased alcohol intake (MetALD), and alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Yet, real-world evidence on how these shifts affect the incidence of liver-related events (LREs) remains scarce. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the impact of these dynamic subtype shifts on the risk of LREs.

In the nationwide cohort, 2,795,409 Korean adults who completed two consecutive biennial health examinations (2009-2010 and 2011-2012) were classified as MASLD, MetALD, or ALD at both assessments. Subtype transitions were determined based on fatty liver index-defined hepatic steatosis, cardiometabolic risk factors, and alcohol consumption. Participants were retrospectively followed from 2013 to 2022 for the occurrence of LREs, ascertained through diagnostic codes. Adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios (aSHRs) were calculated using the Fine-Gray model, accounting for death as a competing event.

The shift in SLD subtype from baseline to follow-up was closely aligned with corresponding changes in LRE risk. Individuals who remained in MASLD at both time points exhibited the lowest risk of composite LREs during the 9-year follow-up. In contrast, shifts from MASLD or MetALD to ALD were associated with the greatest escalation in LRE risk (MASLD-to-ALD: aSHR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.83-2.02]; MetALD-to-ALD: aSHR, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.19-1.35]). Conversely, transitions toward MASLD were linked to substantial reductions in risk (MetALD-to-MASLD: aSHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.85-0.94]; ALD-to-MASLD: aSHR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.73-0.83]).

Because dynamic changes in SLD subtypes strongly influence liver-related outcomes, regular reassessment of SLD classification is essential for timely and appropriate clinical management.

In this large, nationwide cohort of over 2.7 million Korean adults, we demonstrated marked heterogeneity in long-term liver outcomes according to dynamic steatotic liver disease subtype trajectories, providing strong scientific justification for monitoring disease evolution rather than relying on static classifications. These findings underscore the prognostic value of both alcohol intake reduction and metabolic risk management, highlighting the importance of integrated strategies for patients with hepatic steatosis. Clinicians and researchers should recognize the need for comprehensive care models that combine behavioral interventions such as alcohol screening, counseling, and referral to addiction services with pharmacological management of metabolic risk factors. Particularly, patients with MetALD and those with ALD represent highly vulnerable subgroups, underscoring the need for tailored strategies that address both alcohol use and metabolic dysfunction.