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A High-Throughput Multiplexed Screening for Type 1 Diabetes, Celiac Diseases, and COVID-19
Published on: July 5, 2022
Incidence and Severity of Type 1 Diabetes in Children Through the COVID-19 Pandemic in Chile
Consuelo Kutz1, Gonzalo Alarcón-Andrade1,2, Esteban Aguilera3
1Division of Pediatrics, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Insights
Type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence and severity significantly increased in Chilean children during the COVID-19 pandemic. Rates returned to prepandemic trends after 2021, suggesting a potential causal link.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Endocrinology
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Global reports indicate rising type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence and severity during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- This study investigates these trends in Chilean children under 20 years old.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the incidence and severity of T1D in Chilean individuals under 20 years old during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- To compare pandemic-era T1D onset with prepandemic trends and assess diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) rates.
Main Methods:
- Population-based analysis of T1D incidence (2007-2023) in individuals under 20 using a nationwide registry.
- Statistical modeling (SARIMA) to predict and compare incidence rates; Fisher's exact test for DKA proportion analysis (2016-2023).
Main Results:
- T1D incidence in those under 20 increased from 7.4 to 13.9 cases per 100,000 by 2023.
- Higher incidence observed in 10-14 year olds and during winter; DKA rates significantly increased from 64.3% to 75.9% (2020-2023).
- Pandemic-era incidence exceeded SARIMA predictions in 2020-2021, with DKA rates significantly higher post-2019.
Conclusions:
- A significant rise in T1D incidence and severity (DKA) occurred in Chilean children during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Trends returned to prepandemic levels after 2021, but a potential causal relationship with the pandemic is suggested.
- The study provides crucial data on T1D trends and severity post-2021 in this pediatric population.
Background And Objective:
An increase in type 1 diabetes (T1D) incidence and severity was reported worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective is to analyze whether this also occurred in the Chilean population aged less than 20 years.
Methods:
A population-based analysis was performed with people aged less than 20 years with T1D from a nationwide registry (2007-2023). Annual and quarterly incidence rates were calculated. Incidence rate ratios were used to compare averages by sex, age groups, and season. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used to predict incidence rates from 2020, comparing them with actual rates. An individual pre-post analysis was also performed with patients aged less than 18 years with T1D from 3 tertiary centers (2016-2023). Diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) proportions were compared with Fisher's exact test between 2016-2019 and 2020-2023.
Results:
This study included 9583 individuals. T1D incidence increased from 7.4 cases in 2007 to 13.9 cases in a population of 100 000 aged less than 20 years in 2023. Average incidence rates were significantly higher in the 10- to 14-year age group and in winter. Actual quarterly rates were significantly higher than those SARIMA predicted from 2020 to 2021 and not significantly different from 2022 to 2023. Of 334 patients, 71% had DKA. A significant increase in DKA from 64.3% to 75.9% was found in 2020-2023 (P = .03).
Conclusions:
This study includes relevant data after 2021 and regarding severity. A significant increase in T1D incidence was found during the COVID-19 pandemic, paired with a higher severity at onset, returning to the prepandemic trend afterward. A causal relationship may be argued.
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