[Analysis of death reporting omissions among permanent residents in Beijing from 2017 to 2021 based on the...

Objective: To evaluate the completeness of the mortality surveillance data of permanent residents in Beijing from 2017 to 2021 using multi-source data based on the capture-recapture method, understand the underreporting rate of causes of death among permanent residents in Beijing, and provide a scientific basis for the formulation of health policies and social and economic development goals in Beijing. Methods: Collect death data from the cause-of-death surveillance system, Civil Affairs Funeral System and public security household registration cancellation database, evaluate the completeness of ID numbers in death data from different sources, apply the capture-recapture method to calculate the overall underreporting rate of causes of death, underreporting rate of causes of death by gender and age group, and analyze the underreporting rate of causes of death among permanent residents in Beijing. Results: The overall completeness rate of ID numbers in the death monitoring system database before the entry date of December 31, 2024 was 99.79%, while the overall completeness rate of ID numbers in the civil affairs and funeral system was 99.55%. The total underreporting rate of the Beijing mortality surveillance system from 2017 to 2021 was 9.74%, with the underreporting rate for males being 11.71% and for females 7.17%, indicating a higher rate for males than for females. The total underreporting rate after multi-source verification and supplementation was 1.99%, with 2.58% for males and 1.30% for females. By year, the underreporting rate of the Beijing cause-of-death surveillance system decreased from 11.39% in 2017 to 8.95% in 2021, showing a downward trend. By age group, the underreporting rate of causes of death in the 5-, 15-, 45-, and ≥65 age groups in the cause-of-death surveillance system from 2017 to 2021 were 58.89%, 46.88%, 18.67%, and 5.58%, respectively. The multi-source proofreading and supplementary analysis showed that the underreporting rates for the last four age groups were 16.07%, 13.20%, 5.06%, and 0.94%, respectively. The annual trends in underreporting rates across age groups were consistent with the overall trend, with the rates in younger age groups being higher than those in older age groups. Conclusions: From 2017 to 2021, the underreporting rate of causes of death among permanent residents in Beijing's death monitoring system showed a downward trend, indicating that the data quality has improved and the system has been perfected. The underreporting rate of causes of death in the younger age group is relatively high, indicating that efforts should be intensified to improve the registration of causes of death for this age group, further enhance the quality of cause-of-death monitoring, and increase the completeness of reported data. After multiple-source proofreading and supplementation, the underreporting rate of causes of death can be significantly reduced, indicating that using multiple-source data for proofreading and supplementation can effectively enhance the completeness and accuracy of the data.