Where Environment and Healthcare Meet: Air Pollution, Antibiotic Use, and Mortality in an Ageing Population in...

Air pollution, antimicrobial use, and population ageing are increasingly recognised as co-occurring pressures shaping population health. This study explores their ecological association with mortality patterns in the province of Messina (Southern Italy), within a One Health-informed framework.

An ecological analysis was conducted using district-by-year data (2015-2024), integrating environmental monitoring (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, NO₂, O₃), outpatient antibiotic consumption, and cause-specific mortality rates. Multivariable regression models were used to assess associations between exposures and mortality outcomes. A post-2020 indicator was included to account for COVID-19-related disruption.

Marked geographic variability in pollutant concentrations was observed, with higher levels in urban-industrial districts. Infectious disease mortality increased from 13.8 to 44.6 per 100,000 inhabitants between the pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. In Poisson regression models, particulate matter showed a small and non-significant association with respiratory mortality (RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.89-1.18), while antibiotic consumption was not independently associated with mortality (RR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.94-1.05). The post-2020 period was associated with higher mortality estimates (RR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.72-1.83), although with wide confidence intervals.

The findings suggest the co-occurrence of environmental, demographic, and pharmaceutical pressures within the same territories, rather than demonstrating formal synergistic interaction. The observed post-pandemic increase in mortality highlights the importance of accounting for COVID-19-related disruption. These results should be interpreted as exploratory, given the ecological design and limited sample size, but support the need for integrated surveillance approaches within a One Health perspective.