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Psychometric properties of the Probability Bias Measure
Robert W Booth1, Gubse N Aydın1, Beril Başara1
1Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Plos One
|April 24, 2026
Summary
Probability bias, a tendency to overestimate negative events, is linked to depression and anxiety. A new Probability Bias Measure shows validity in assessing this bias in Turkish students.
Area of Science:
- Psychology
- Clinical Psychology
- Psychometrics
Background:
- Probability bias, the overestimation of negative event likelihood and underestimation of positive event likelihood, is significantly associated with depressive and anxious symptom severity.
- Existing measures may not be brief or general enough for diverse populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a brief, general Probability Bias Measure (PBM) suitable for various populations.
- To assess the psychometric properties of the PBM in Turkish-speaking student samples.
Main Methods:
- Development and testing of the PBM with two Turkish-speaking student samples (N=228, N=170).
- Analysis of the measure's factor structure, internal consistency, convergent validity (correlations with depression, anxiety, mood, hopelessness, optimism), and discriminant validity.
Main Results:
- The PBM demonstrated an adequate one-factor structure and good internal consistency in both samples.
- Probability bias, calculated as the difference between negative and positive event probability estimates, showed excellent convergent validity with psychological distress and mood variables.
- The PBM accounted for unique variance in depressive symptom severity, supporting its discriminant validity.
Conclusions:
- The Probability Bias Measure shows preliminary validity and reliability for research in Turkish-speaking populations.
- The findings support the PBM's utility in assessing cognitive biases related to mood and psychological well-being.
- Initial evidence for the English version's validity is also discussed.
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