Land vertebrates increasingly exposed to multiple extreme events by 2085

Area of Science:

• Climate Change Ecology
• Biodiversity Conservation
• Extreme Event Impacts

Background:

• Understanding species exposure to extreme events is crucial for biodiversity conservation.
• Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events globally.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict changes in exposure to droughts, heatwaves, river floods, and wildfires for terrestrial vertebrates.
• To identify ecoregions and species at high risk from multiple extreme events under future climate scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized climate impact projections and species range data for 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species.
• Modeled changes in exposure to four extreme event types across 794 ecoregions under a medium-high emission scenario (SSP3-7.0).

Main Results:

• By 2050, 74% of species' ranges may face heatwaves, with significant exposure to wildfires and droughts.
• By 2085, 36% of species' ranges are projected to experience multiple extreme event types.
• 236 ecoregions are projected to have at least 50% of their area exposed to two or more extreme events by 2085.

Conclusions:

• Projected increases in extreme event exposure necessitate research into species' adaptive capacities.
• Conservation strategies must consider the cumulative impacts of multiple extreme events on biodiversity.
• Urgent action is needed to mitigate climate change and protect vulnerable species and ecoregions.