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Multi-scalar aridity dynamics and climate-vegetation coupling in the Western Himalayan Cold Desert, India
Pankaj Kumar1, Ashwani1, Swati Thakur2
1Department of Geography, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, Delhi, India.
The Science of the Total Environment
|April 25, 2026
Summary
Western Himalayan cold deserts are warming, leading to increased aridity and potential landslides. Despite a wetting trend, fragile ecosystems face risks from changing precipitation patterns and require adaptive management.
Area of Science:
- Climatology and Environmental Science
- Arid Ecosystem Dynamics
- Climate Change Impact Assessment
Background:
- Cold deserts in the Western Himalayas (Lahaul-Spiti, Kinnaur, Ladakh) are highly vulnerable to global warming.
- These high-altitude arid regions are sensitive to precipitation changes and extreme temperatures.
- Understanding historical aridity is vital for conservation and climate change impact assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze historical aridity trends in the Western Himalayas from 1901 to 2022.
- To evaluate hydroclimatic variability and drought severity using multiple indices.
- To assess the potential impacts of observed climatic changes on the region's ecosystems and communities.
Main Methods:
- Utilized CRU TS v4.08 data for aridity analysis from 1901 to 2022.
- Calculated the Aridity Index (AI) as the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET).
- Employed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) to assess hydroclimatic variability and drought.
Main Results:
- Observed a 13.3% increase in the annual Aridity Index, indicating a trend towards declining dryness, most pronounced in winter.
- Consistent wetting trends were confirmed by positive annual slopes in AI, SPI (0.0104), SPEI (0.0127), and RDI (0.0118).
- Despite overall wetting, increased precipitation in rain-shadow deserts poses risks like soil instability, landslides, and biodiversity loss.
Conclusions:
- The Western Himalayas are experiencing significant hydroclimatic shifts, with a general wetting trend but increased aridity in certain seasons.
- Potential negative impacts include soil erosion, landslides, vegetation stress, and biodiversity loss, alongside risks to local communities and infrastructure.
- Long-term monitoring and adaptive management strategies are crucial for conserving these fragile cold desert ecosystems under climate change.
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