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Pathogen spillover in a seasonal cholera model
Linda J S Allen1, Glenn Lahodny2
1Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, 79409, TX, USA.
Mathematical Biosciences
|April 25, 2026
Summary
This study models pathogen spillover, focusing on cholera. Using mathematical approximations, it calculates disease emergence risks and offers new insights into seasonal infectious disease dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Pathogen spillover events are critical in the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases.
- Understanding pathogen sources and environmental drivers is vital for disease control.
- Cholera serves as a model system, with the environment acting as the bacterial pathogen's reservoir.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate pathogen spillover dynamics in cholera.
- To compute probabilities of spillover and disease emergence.
- To develop a novel estimate for disease emergence risk following a spillover event.
Main Methods:
- Application of a stochastic seasonal cholera model.
- Utilizing continuous-time Markov chain methods.
- Employing branching process approximations for early-stage analysis.
Main Results:
- Calculated probabilities of pathogen spillover and subsequent disease emergence.
- Quantified the risk of disease emergence given a spillover event.
- Gained insights into seasonal patterns of spillover and emergence.
Conclusions:
- Mathematical modeling, particularly branching processes, offers valuable insights into infectious disease emergence.
- The study provides a framework for assessing spillover and emergence risks.
- Findings contribute to understanding and potentially mitigating cholera outbreaks.
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