Assessing Geographic and Temporal Variation in the Cost of the Thrifty Food Plan

This study examined the geographic and temporal variability in the cost of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) using newly available price data and assessed implications for the adequacy of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits.

We linked the US Department of Agriculture's 2021 TFP dataset with Food-at-Home Monthly Area Prices data from 2012 to 2018 to estimate TFP cost per week for a reference family across 4 census regions and 10 major metropolitan areas.

We measured TFP cost by geographic area, month, and year, along with cost contributions of 24 TFP food categories.

Descriptive analysis and analysis of variance were used to quantify the contribution of geography, year, and month to TFP cost variation and to identify food categories driving those differences.

TFP cost varied substantially across geography, with regional gaps exceeding $40/wk and even greater differences across metropolitan areas. Analysis of variance showed geography explained 89% of the cost variation, seasonality explained 9%, and year-to-year changes explained 1%. Whole fruit, other vegetables, and whole grain staple grains were key category-level contributors.

Findings underscore the need to consider geographic price variation in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefit adjustments and support continued research on equitable food purchasing power.