Recent acceleration of climate change increases extinction risk of the world's carnivores

Carnivoran species are increasingly threatened by human-induced environmental changes, making them especially vulnerable to extinction risk. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to evaluate how life-history traits, human footprint, and recent climate change velocity affect extinction risk for 257 extant terrestrial carnivoran species worldwide. We integrated trait data with global datasets on anthropogenic pressure and climate velocity for the period 1991-2018. Our models revealed that recent climate change velocity, particularly for minimum temperatures, showed the strongest statistical association with extinction risk over both 50- and 100-year time horizons, surpassing human footprint and intrinsic traits. High-risk areas were concentrated in Eurasia, southern China, the midwestern U.S.A., South America, and Indonesia. Species with larger body size, restricted geographic ranges, and low reproductive rates were especially at risk, while those with longer lifespans, larger litters, and broader ecological niches exhibited lower risk. Carnivoran assemblages in parts of North America exhibited comparatively lower mean extinction risk, whereas Eastern Europe showed spatially heterogeneous patterns. Our findings emphasize the urgent need to incorporate recent climate trends and trait-based vulnerability into conservation planning, moving beyond species-specific approaches. Understanding how intrinsic traits interact with rapid environmental change can improve predictions of biodiversity loss and help identify regions and taxa most at risk. With global commitments to halt biodiversity decline by 2050, including those under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, our results provide timely insights for guiding conservation priorities and enhancing the resilience of carnivoran populations amid accelerating climate and human pressures.