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Updated: May 4, 2026

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External validation of three risk prediction models for deep vein thrombosis in patients with acute stroke: a

Lina Fu1,2, Kairu Feng1, Chunyan Cui2

  • 1Institute of Environment and Health, South China Hospital, Medical School, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.

Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine
|April 27, 2026
PubMed

Insights

The Lu Qiufang model demonstrated superior performance in predicting deep vein thrombosis (DVT) for acute stroke patients compared to other models. Further validation is needed to confirm its generalizability across different healthcare settings.

Area of Science:

  • Neurology
  • Cardiology
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is a significant concern in patients experiencing acute stroke.
  • Accurate risk prediction models are crucial for managing DVT in this vulnerable population.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the predictive accuracy of three established risk models for DVT in acute stroke patients.
  • To identify the most effective model for clinical application in DVT risk stratification.

Main Methods:

  • A single-center cohort study involving 1,270 acute stroke patients.
  • External validation of three pre-identified DVT prediction models.
  • Performance assessment using AUC, Brier score, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Main Results:

  • The Lu Qiufang model exhibited the highest predictive performance (AUC 0.804), superior discrimination, and calibration.
  • This model also demonstrated the greatest clinical net benefit across a wide probability range.
  • All models showed negative predictive values exceeding 90%.

Conclusions:

  • The Lu Qiufang model shows promise as a superior tool for DVT risk prediction in acute stroke patients.
  • Further multicenter and cross-regional validation is recommended to ensure generalizability.
  • The study supports the Lu Qiufang model for improved clinical decision-making in DVT prevention.
Abstract

Keywords:
acute strokedeep vein thrombosisexternal validationrisk prediction modelsystematic review

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