Trends in sugar-sweetened beverage prices, sales, and elasticities: policy evidence from WHO regions, 2010-2024

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugars and an important focus for fiscal policies aimed at preventing obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to assess trends in sugar-sweetened beverage sales and inflation-adjusted prices and to estimate the price elasticity of demand across World Health Organization (WHO) regions from 2010 to 2024, providing evidence to support fiscal policies for health. Annual country-level data on sugar-sweetened beverage sales volumes and values for 93 geographic locations, representing 81.74% of the 2024 global population, were obtained from the Euromonitor International Passport database and grouped into six WHO regions. Sales values were converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity and adjusted for inflation, and regional average real prices were calculated. Trends in sales volumes, sales values, and prices were analysed using joinpoint regression. Price elasticities of demand were estimated using a baseline panel regression model of the log of sales volume per capita on the log of real price, controlling for macroeconomic indicators, with regional elasticities derived from the model's marginal effects, and an instrumental variables specification was used for robustness. Between 2010 and 2024, the global sugar-sweetened beverage sales volume increased by 16.9%, with the largest rises in Southeast Asia (101.6%) and Africa (81.5%) and smaller increases in the Americas, the Western Pacific Region, the Eastern Mediterranean, and Europe. The global price elasticity of demand was -0.423 (p < 0.01). It was highest in Europe (-0.828, p < 0.01) and the Americas (-0.509, p < 0.05), while elasticities in other regions were not statistically significant. The substantial increase in SSB sales in emerging markets, such as Southeast Asia and Africa, along with a moderate increase in other regions, indicates the need for comprehensive SSB control policies and the implementation of WHO SSB taxation policies (2022). The divergent regional trajectories highlight the need for comprehensive fiscal and regulatory policies to curb the growth in SSB consumption and encourage shifts towards healthier options.