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Temporal Trends and Seasonality of Invasive Candidiasis During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Interrupted Time
José M Oñate-Gutiérrez1,2, Carlos A Alvarez-Moreno2,3, Claudia Cañadas-Aragón1,2
1Clínica Colsanitas S.A., Clínica Sebastián de Belalcázar, Cali 760045, Colombia.
Abstract:
Invasive candidiasis is a severe opportunistic infection whose incidence may be influenced by major disruptive events. The COVID-19 pandemic substantially altered hospital dynamics in Colombia. This study aimed to evaluate temporal trends, seasonality, and potential changes in the incidence of invasive candidiasis between 2019 and 2024. We conducted an observational time-series study using confirmed cases of invasive candidiasis from medium- and high-complexity hospitals in three major Colombian cities. Cases were aggregated quarterly. An interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis was performed. A total of 1294 cases were analyzed. An increasing trend was observed until mid-2022, followed by a decline during 2023. Seasonal decomposition revealed persistent seasonality with recurrent peaks in the second and fourth quarters. The ITS analysis did not demonstrate statistically significant changes in level or slope after the interruption (p > 0.05), although clinically relevant fluctuations were observed. No significant differences in temporal trends were identified across Candida species. Invasive candidiasis in Colombia exhibited a complex temporal evolution during and after the COVID-19 pandemic characterized by sustained seasonality and an increase followed by a decline. Although the ITS analysis did not identify statistically significant post-pandemic changes, the findings support the use of time-series models as valuable tools for epidemiological surveillance and trend monitoring.
Insights
Invasive candidiasis incidence in Colombia showed an increase until mid-2022, then declined, with persistent seasonality. Time-series analysis revealed no significant pandemic-related changes, highlighting the value of epidemiological surveillance.
Area of Science:
- Infectious Diseases
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Invasive candidiasis is a severe opportunistic infection.
- Major disruptive events, like the COVID-19 pandemic, can impact infection incidence.
- Hospital dynamics in Colombia were significantly altered during the pandemic.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate temporal trends, seasonality, and potential changes in invasive candidiasis incidence in Colombia from 2019 to 2024.
- To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive candidiasis epidemiology.
- To analyze the evolution of invasive candidiasis during and after the pandemic.
Main Methods:
- Observational time-series study design.
- Utilized confirmed invasive candidiasis cases from Colombian hospitals (2019-2024).
- Employed interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis and seasonal decomposition.
Main Results:
- Analyzed 1294 cases, observing an increasing trend until mid-2022, followed by a decline in 2023.
- Seasonal decomposition identified persistent seasonality with peaks in Q2 and Q4.
- ITS analysis showed no statistically significant changes in level or slope post-pandemic, despite observed fluctuations.
Conclusions:
- Invasive candidiasis in Colombia demonstrated complex temporal dynamics during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Sustained seasonality was noted, alongside an initial increase followed by a decrease in incidence.
- While not statistically significant, findings support time-series models for epidemiological surveillance of invasive fungal infections.
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