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Scandinavian pattern and temperature changes shape European summer droughts over the past millennium.
Huihong Xue1, Hugues Goosse2, Quentin Dalaiden3,4
1Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. huihong.xue@uclouvain.be.
Nature Communications
|April 27, 2026
Summary
European summer drying is driven by changes in atmospheric circulation, particularly the Scandinavian pattern (SCAND), and rising temperatures. These factors explain over half of drought variability and recent drying trends.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Climate Science
- Hydroclimatology
Background:
- European hydroclimate has undergone significant changes, including summer drying.
- Spatiotemporal variability and drivers of European drought remain uncertain.
Purpose of the Study:
- Reconstruct European hydroclimate and its drivers over the past millennium.
- Investigate the primary drivers of European warm-season drought variability.
Main Methods:
- Developed the European Last Millennial Data Assimilation (EULMDA) reconstruction.
- Integrated five Earth System Model simulations with over one hundred tree-ring records.
- Validated reconstruction against instrumental climate variability and atmospheric circulation.
Main Results:
- EULMDA accurately reproduces instrumental climate variability.
- Scandinavian pattern (SCAND) and long-term summer temperature changes explain over 50% of drought variance.
- SCAND drives a north-south hydroclimate dipole, influencing Mediterranean and northern European drought and wetting trends.
Conclusions:
- Circulation changes and summer warming are key drivers of European drought.
- SCAND significantly contributes to Mediterranean drought variability and recent drying.
- Findings provide context for interpreting drought trends and future hydroclimate risks.
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