Early postpartum psychosocial profiles predict parenting maladjustment at 1 year

Parenting difficulties during the first postpartum year are a public health concern. Early screening mainly uses depressive-symptom measures such as the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), which capture concurrent symptoms but may miss broader psychosocial vulnerability linked to later parenting outcomes. We hypothesised that early multidimensional profiling using the Comprehensive Scale for Parenting Resilience and Adaptation (CPRA) would predict later parenting maladjustment. Data from two longitudinal cohorts (N = 215) were analysed. Maladjustment was defined as an increase of at least mean + 0.5 standard deviation in the Psychological Adaptation to Parenting difficulty score from 1 to 12 months postpartum. Eight predictors, including CPRA domains and demographic factors, were entered into an Elastic Net logistic regression, followed by post-Elastic Net logistic regression. Fifty-repetition Monte Carlo cross-validation identified six stable predictors. The final model showed acceptable, reproducible discrimination (median area under the curve, 0.724; interquartile range, 0.652-0.768). Higher early difficulty in Mother's Cognitive and Behavioural Characteristics was a stable predictor of later maladjustment. Early postpartum CPRA-derived psychosocial profiles may help identify mothers at risk of later parenting maladjustment.