Antimicrobial decision-making under uncertainty in the high-stakes intensive care unit scenario: a critical...

Antimicrobial Stewardship in the intensive care unit setting is a difficult task due to diagnostic uncertainty and perceived high-risk of poor outcomes in case of delayed or inappropriate treatment. Although novel diagnostics and other strategies have been proposed to improve antimicrobial use, their clinical effectiveness in real-world settings has been suboptimal.

We designed a critical interpretative synthesis of the literature, which allows the combination of quantitative and qualitative studies to revise and critique concepts used in Antimicrobial Stewardship efforts in the ICU setting. We searched the literature in duplicate with a sensitive strategy to identify main concepts, and we developed a main theme and conceptual framework after identifying the main concepts and strategies.

After screening 41,192 titles and abstracts and reviewing 1,335 full-text manuscripts, we selected 29 main manuscripts for this synthesis. We identified that classical concepts, such as the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics followed by de-escalation and the use of biomarkers of infection and novel diagnostics, although with face validity and supported by efficacy studies, carry a high risk of being ineffective in real-world settings. We argue that this discrepancy is due to cognitive biases in antimicrobial decision-making in the ICU setting, including risk-aversion behavior, diagnostic momentum, premature closure, therapeutic momentum, hyperbolic discounting, commission bias, and anchoring bias, among others, which drive intensivists towards overdiagnosis and overtreatment of infection.

Incorporation of the cognitive theory of decision-making in future stewardship efforts is necessary in the ICU setting along with traditional stewardship interventions.