Basin-scale land use and land cover dynamics driven by population change and policy interventions

Land use land cover (LULC) change is a major factor driving changes in environmental sustainability, including alterations in the hydrological cycle, declining biodiversity, and impacts on agricultural systems. Various studies have been conducted to assess LULC change in Kentucky watersheds. However, there is limited research that comprehensively evaluates the change at a Basin level. Our study examined the spatiotemporal pattern of LULC from 2002 to 2022, and we explored one of the major drivers influencing LULC in the Kentucky River Basin. This study utilized Google Earth Engine and a random forest classifier to map the LULC using Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 imagery. The accuracy of the maps classified was verified using high-resolution NAIP imagery. The overall accuracy was greater than 90%, and the Kappa was above 80%. The result shows substantial land transition in the basin, specifically, a decline in agricultural land (55.74%) and an increase in developed land (114.16%) relative to their 2002 baseline. The forest cover has a net gain of (1.81%), and barren land has a net loss of (-24.15%), indicating a major ecological restoration from 2012 to 2022, attributed to the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA). The water body has a net loss (53.05%), raising concern about the hydrological process of the basin. The regression analysis shows that population change was significant in some periods but had a weak influence on agricultural land loss. These findings indicate that a land-use change is underway in the Basin, necessitating an urgent approach that integrates sustainable land-use policy and drought-responsive management with the Basin's ecological processes.