Using period analysis to timely provide serial data on long-term survival for liver cancer patients from China

Timely evaluation of long-term survival in liver cancer is essential for assessing early detection and screening efficacy. However, population-based survival data in China remain scarce, particularly for multi-decade analyses. This study systematically evaluated age-standardized 5-year relative survival (RS) in Taizhou, eastern China, and quantified temporal improvements from 2004 to 2023.

A retrospective cohort of 12,032 liver cancer patients diagnosed in Taizhou (2004-2023) was analyzed. Period analysis was used to compute age-standardized 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year RS rates, stratified by gender, age, and urban versus rural residence. Survival estimates were derived using actuarial methods with adjustments for competing mortality risks based on regional life tables.

The 5-year RS for patients during 2019-2023 was 37.32%, significantly exceeding earlier periods (29.13% for 2014-2023, 23.00% for 2009-2023, and 5.56% for 2004-2023). Female patients consistently exhibited higher survival (39.23% vs. 37.26% for males), with a pronounced age gradient 5-year RS declined from 45.71% in patients <45 years to 26.05% in those >74 years. The urban-rural survival gap narrowed, with urban areas showing 37.83% versus 37.25% in rural areas (2019-2023).

This study provides the most current population-based long-term RS data for liver cancer in Taizhou, offering a critical benchmark for enhancing early detection and screening programs in eastern China.