Trends in Long-Term Survival Among Patients With De Novo Metastatic Cancer

Although outcomes for nonmetastatic cancers have improved since the 1970s, it remains uncertain whether long-term survival has improved among patients presenting with de novo metastatic disease, defined as cancer presenting with distant metastases at the time of initial diagnosis. This study evaluated changes in 5-year survival among patients with de novo metastatic cancer diagnosed in 1976 versus 2015, with a minimum 5-year follow-up through 1981 and 2020, respectively.

Population-based data were obtained from the SEER database. Patients diagnosed with de novo metastatic cancer in 1976 (n = 11,864) and 2015 (n = 26,324) were included. Five-year overall survival (OS) was compared between cohorts, and multivariable logistic regression identified demographic and clinical factors associated with survival.

The 5-year OS increased significantly from 10.6% in 1976-1981 to 23.6% in 2015-2020 (P < .001). Survival gains were largest in breast cancer (12.6%-34.2%; P < .001), ovarian cancer (14.4%-32.5%; P < .001), colorectal cancer (3.7%-15.0%; P < .001), and hematologic malignancies (24.3%-53.9%; P < .001). Minimal improvement occurred in pancreatic cancer (0.25%-1.6%; P = .007) and small cell lung cancer (0.8%-3.1%; P = .008). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that older age, male sex, and Black race were associated with lower odds of 5-year survival (all P < .01).

Over the past four decades, long-term survival among patients with de novo metastatic cancer has more than doubled; however, progress remains uneven across cancer types. Gains appear concentrated in malignancies with substantial therapeutic advances, whereas others show persistently poor outcomes. Continued efforts are needed to address disparities and improve survival in resistant cancer types.