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Provider behavior from FFS to DRGs payment: experimental evidence from real physicians
Yefeng Chen1, Weizheng Zhao1, Ying Liu2
1School of Economics and Interdisciplinary Center for Social Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China.
Health Economics Review
|April 30, 2026
Summary
Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) reduce overtreatment but risk upcoding and undertreatment, impacting insurance funds. Physician altruism conflicts with DRG incentives, necessitating regulatory oversight for healthcare sustainability.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Medical Policy
- Behavioral Economics
Background:
- Rising healthcare costs in China necessitate health insurance reform.
- Shift from Fee-for-Service (FFS) to Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) aims for cost containment.
- DRGs introduce potential moral hazards like upcoding and undertreatment, threatening public health and insurance sustainability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the impact of Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) versus Fee-for-Service (FFS) payment systems on physician behavior.
- To analyze the effects of medical outcome uncertainty on DRG and FFS system performance.
- To investigate the influence of financial incentives and professional ethics on healthcare delivery under DRGs.
Main Methods:
- A lab-in-the-field experiment simulating FFS and DRG payment scenarios.
- Inclusion of real physicians to mimic practical healthcare decision-making.
- Incorporation of medical outcome uncertainty into the experimental design.
Main Results:
- DRGs were found to decrease overtreatment but increase risks of upcoding and undertreatment, especially under uncertainty.
- Physician behavior showed a tendency towards altruism, prioritizing case severity over fairness and efficiency.
- A conflict between financial incentives and professional ethics emerged, potentially compromising patient welfare under DRGs.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights significant moral hazards associated with DRGs, including upcoding and undertreatment.
- Physician behavior under DRGs presents challenges to insurance fund sustainability and patient welfare.
- Regulatory interventions are crucial to mitigate these moral hazards and ensure the long-term viability of the healthcare system.
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