Climate Change Alters Elevational Distribution Patterns of Cormus domestica Habitat

The biodiversity of temperate forests is severely threatened by climate change, with many species facing loss of suitable habitats or local extinction. Species that are highly sensitive to climate change, especially those with low dispersal ability, pose significant challenges. A comprehensive overview of the impact of climate change on the elevational shifts of temperate trees is still missing. In this study, we used species distribution models to study range shifts of Cormus domestica (L.) in Italy under current and future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), specifically focusing on the species' elevational shifts under future climate change. Our models project a considerable loss of habitat suitability over time (32%-68% by 2100). Annual mean temperature is the primary limiting variable, with the margin of the optimal temperature range at about 12°C. We found that climate change will alter the spatial configuration of suitable areas, with newly gained habitats always at higher elevations than lost ones. This result implies a trend of suitable areas shifting toward higher elevations, but in a way that cannot compensate for habitat loss. Our results point to the urgent need to strengthen conservation efforts aimed at improving the climate resilience of low-elevation species.