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Evaluating active driver intervention strategies in sequential conflict scenarios: a counterfactual reasoning-based
Shuke Xie1, Ting Fu1, Jinglin Wang1
1The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, 4800 Cao'an Highway, Shanghai 201804, China.
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|May 1, 2026
Summary
Sequential conflicts in traffic increase intersection crashes. This study introduces a new model to evaluate interventions, finding online voice prompts most effective for reducing conflict intensity and improving road safety.
Area of Science:
- Traffic Safety Engineering
- Human Factors in Transportation
- Computational Social Science
Background:
- Multi-round conflicts at intersections are a primary cause of crashes.
- Sequential interactions influence risk dynamics and driver attention.
- Existing interventions lack tailored strategies for varying risk levels in sequential conflicts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a counterfactual reasoning-based model for evaluating active interventions in sequential traffic conflicts.
- To quantify intervention benefits and understand their manifestation through safety mechanisms.
- To provide interpretable, risk-level strategy recommendations for intersection safety.
Main Methods:
- Developed a multi-layer indicator system for within-round and cross-round risk.
- Constructed a mechanism-level outcome space using exploratory factor analysis.
- Employed trajectory-level counterfactual reasoning for strategy benefit estimation.
Main Results:
- Validated the model using a driving simulator study with 30 drivers and 8 scenarios.
- All tested intervention strategies showed positive net benefits.
- Online voice prompts demonstrated the highest effectiveness in reducing peak conflict intensity.
Conclusions:
- The proposed model supports interpretable, risk-level strategy selection for sequential conflicts.
- It offers a transferable evaluation framework for driver assistance systems.
- Interventions can effectively mitigate risks in complex, multi-round traffic scenarios.
Keywords:
Active intervention strategiesCounterfactual reasoning evaluationExploratory factor analysisSequential conflictsSignalized intersectionsMore Related Videos
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