GLOBAL, REGIONAL, AND NATIONAL BURDEN OF CHRONIC KIDNEY DISEASE DUE TO TYPE 2 DIABETES MELLITUS, 1990-2021, WITH...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Nephrology
• Endocrinology

Background:

• Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a leading cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD).
• Epidemiological trends and projections for T2DM-attributable CKD are not well-defined globally.
• Understanding these trends is vital for public health planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the global, regional, and national burden of CKD due to T2DM from 1990 to 2021.
• To forecast the future trends of T2DM-related CKD through 2035.
• To utilize Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling for accurate projections.

Main Methods:

• Population-based observational study using Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data.
• Inclusion of 204 countries and territories, stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles and GBD regions.
• Analysis of incident/prevalent cases, mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASIR, ASPR, ASDR, ASR) with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC).

Main Results:

• Global incident CKD cases due to T2DM rose by 167.2% (ASIR +21.0%) from 1990-2021; deaths increased by 222.6% (ASDR +37.8%).
• Prevalent cases nearly doubled (+85.1%), while prevalence rates slightly declined (-5.1%).
• Males, older adults, and low- to middle-SDI nations showed a higher burden and growth, with high-SDI regions also experiencing increases.

Conclusions:

• CKD burden from T2DM is escalating globally, with significant increases in incidence, mortality, and DALYs.
• Projections indicate over 2.6 million incident cases and 700,000 deaths annually by mid-century.
• Targeted prevention, early detection, and improved management are essential, particularly in high-growth regions and vulnerable groups.