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Integrating evolutionary game theory with SEIRS models: A spatial epidemic simulator for strategy-based

Paweł Mendzik1, Damian Borys2

  • 1Silesian University of Technology, Gliwice, Poland.

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|May 3, 2026
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Summary

Adaptive behaviors significantly impact epidemic spread, especially with freeriders. Voluntary vaccination is less effective when individuals avoid compliance, particularly with low perceived infection risk.

Keywords:
Agent-based simulationEpidemic modelingEvolutionary game theorySEIRS modelSpatial dynamicsVaccination behavior

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Evolutionary Game Theory
  • Computational Modeling

Background:

  • Individual behavior significantly influences epidemic dynamics in populations.
  • Spatial structure and adaptive strategies interact to shape disease transmission patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the impact of adaptive individual behavior on epidemic dynamics in spatially structured populations.
  • To examine the interplay between payoff-driven strategy evolution and spatial SEIRS (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • A simulation framework integrating a spatial SEIRS model with evolutionary game dynamics (Hawk-Dove formulation).
  • Strategies, including vaccination and freeriding, evolve via payoff-driven adaptation and local interactions.
  • Disease transmission modeled using spatially localized SEIRS dynamics on a 2D lattice.

Main Results:

  • Freeriders dramatically increased mortality and epidemic duration, especially under high infection penalties.
  • Low perceived infection severity significantly reduced vaccination uptake, leading to high mortality even without freeriders.
  • A critical freerider cluster size (15.6-31.3%) and a vaccination cost threshold (Cvac≈0.2-0.5) were identified, beyond which epidemic duration is maximized.

Conclusions:

  • Individual decision-making and epidemic spread are intricately linked through feedback mechanisms.
  • Voluntary vaccination strategies are limited by the presence of non-compliant individuals (freeriders) and low perceived risks.
  • Understanding these behavioral-epidemiological feedbacks is crucial for effective public health interventions.