Climate Change Reshapes Thermal Suitability for Dairy Cattle in Jiangsu Province (1961-2020)

Understanding how climate change alters the thermal environment experienced by dairy cattle is critical for guiding adaptation in rapidly warming regions. Using meteorological data from 1961 to 2020, this study quantified long-term trends in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed across Jiangsu Province, China, and assessed their impacts on thermal stress using a temperature-humidity index (THI). The results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in climatic change, with accelerated warming in southern and coastal prefectures, and continued winter cold stress in the northern plain. Over the past six decades, the annual number of heat-stress days (THI > 72) increased substantially and expanded northward, while cold-stress days (THI ≤ 38) declined but remained non-negligible in northern Jiangsu. Although the total number of thermally comfortable days changed little at the provincial scale, their seasonal distribution became increasingly compressed between longer summer heat-stress periods and shorter winter cold-stress windows, indicating a narrowing of the effective comfort range for dairy cattle. To link historical analysis with operational applications, a forecasting platform was developed to generate short-term predictions of THI and associated meteorological conditions, enabling spatially explicit visualization and early identification of periods with elevated thermal risk. Overall, these findings demonstrate an intensification and redistribution of thermal stress in Jiangsu, while also illustrating a transferable climate-risk mechanism relevant to other warming, humid dairy regions worldwide.