Mapping Vulnerability: Structure, Cascades, and Resilience in the Global Railway Vans Trade Network

Global supply chains face increasing vulnerability to disruptions from geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and demand shocks. The global trade network for railway vans, critical for transcontinental freight transport, remains understudied despite its foundational role in global logistics. This study addresses the gap in understanding how the railway vans trade network structure evolves and responds to different types of shocks, moving beyond static analyses to capture dynamic vulnerabilities. Using UN Comtrade data (2013-2024), multi-level network analysis examined structural evolution at macroscopic, mesoscopic, and microscopic scales. Three risk propagation models simulated supply disruption, demand shock, and cooperation disruption scenarios to assess systemic vulnerabilities. The network transformed from a polycentric to core-periphery structure, with China dominating exports (67 partners in 2024) and Germany leading European integration. Supply disruptions from Romania and Czechia affected up to 114 countries under low risk absorption capacity (α = 0.1), while demand shocks from the USA impacted 53 countries. The disruption of strategic trade links, such as China-Australia, triggered severe systemic risks. The systemic criticality of risk sources varies by shock type, requiring context-specific resilience strategies. The findings guide policymakers in identifying critical vulnerabilities and designing targeted interventions for enhancing supply chain resilience in infrastructure sectors.