From Neurological Severity to Anatomical Burden: An Integrated Clinical-CT Model for Predicting In-Hospital Mortality...

Background/Objectives: Cranial gunshot injuries represent severe traumatic brain injuries associated with high mortality rates. This study investigated whether integrating clinical findings at admission, including GCS score and pupillary response, with a CT-derived anatomical burden score and midline shift improves the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Methods: Adult patients aged 18 years and older with penetrating cranial gunshot injuries (n = 143) treated at a tertiary referral centre between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2025 were retrospectively analysed using a single-centre cohort design. All included patients completed in-hospital follow-up, defined as hospital discharge or in-hospital death. Clinical variables, the anatomical burden score, and midline shift were evaluated using a multivariable logistic regression model where the primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Model performance was assessed using ROC analysis, calibration measures, and bootstrap internal validation. Results: The in-hospital mortality rate was 56.6%, with early mortality occurring in 33.6% of patients. In the multivariable analysis, a low admission GCS score (≤8), bilateral non-reactive pupils, an increased anatomical burden score, and midline shift were independently associated with a higher risk of mortality. The model demonstrated good discrimination (AUC = 0.87; 95% CI 0.81-0.93), and similar performance was maintained following internal validation (optimism-corrected AUC = 0.86). The addition of radiological parameters to clinical variables improved model discrimination (ΔAUC = 0.07; 95% CI 0.02-0.11). Conclusions: The combined evaluation of admission clinical findings and CT-based anatomical parameters may support a more structured early estimation of in-hospital mortality risk in adult patients with penetrating cranial gunshot injuries.