Prediction of Hole Expansion Ratio in Advanced High-Strength Steels Using Physics-Informed Machine Learning

The hole expansion ratio (HER) is a critical formability metric for advanced high-strength steels (AHSS) in automotive applications; however, its experimental determination is costly and time-consuming. This study presents a machine learning framework for HER prediction using physics-informed synthetic data generation to address data scarcity challenges. A dataset of 300 AHSS conditions was generated based on validated empirical relationships from the literature, incorporating chemical composition, microstructure fractions, and mechanical properties. Multiple machine learning algorithms were evaluated, with the optimized Gradient Boosting model achieving excellent predictive performance on an independent test set (R² = 0.80, RMSE = 5.81%, MAE = 4.93%). The feature importance analysis revealed physically meaningful rankings, with the ultimate tensile strength dominating (40.9%), followed by the bainite volume fraction (15.1%), martensite volume fraction (14.7%), and strain hardening exponent (12.4%). These rankings align with the established metallurgical understanding, thereby validating our synthetic data approach. The results demonstrate that machine learning models trained on physics-informed synthetic data can accurately predict the HER values with errors comparable to the experimental variability, providing a practical tool for accelerated AHSS design and optimization in automotive applications.