One Index Does Not Predict All-Hematological Derived Indices Have Different Predictive Value for ICU Mortality in...

Background and Objectives: Acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) poses a major burden on healthcare systems, with critically ill AECOPD patients having increased morbidity and mortality. Since adverse outcomes are due both to respiratory failure and the systemic inflammatory response, prognostic markers accounting for these patterns are needed. Our aim was to investigate the predictive power of derived hematological indices for intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients with non-infectious versus infectious AECOPD. Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective, observational, monocentric cohort study on 88 AECOPD patients admitted to the ICU between 2018 and 2023. Descriptive statistics were performed for the entire cohort, and for predefined subgroups (non-infectious, infectious and bacterial AECOPD). Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis was performed to test the predictive power of the studied indices. Cut-off values were identified using the Youden index. Kaplan-Meier analysis was conducted to test the association with ICU mortality. Results: Overall ICU mortality was 44%. For the whole cohort, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil-to-platelets ratio (NPR) and systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) showed moderate predictive power for ICU mortality (areas under the curve (AUCs) of 0.71-0.73). Non-infectious and infectious subgroups were comparable in terms of size, demographics, comorbidities and baseline COPD characteristics (p > 0.05). Mortality was significantly higher in infectious AECOPD (64.6% versus 20%, p < 0.001). For non-infectious AECOPD, monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) and SIRI had very good predictive power (AUCs between 0.82 and 0.855), while NPR and systemic inflammation index (SII) showed moderate AUC values (between 0.7 and 0.79). In infectious AECOPD, only NPR retained fair predictive power (AUC 0.691), which improved in bacterial AECOPD (AUC 0.781). Conclusions: Derived hematological indices have different predictive values for ICU mortality. MLR and SIRI exhibited very good predictive power in non-infectious AECOPD, while NPR was the best discriminator in bacterial AECOPD. These stress the importance of individualized prognostication in AECOPD.