Reliability Assessment of Harmonic Reducers Based on the Two-Phase Hybrid Stochastic Degradation Process
Lai Wei1,2, Peng Liu1,2, Hailong Tian1,2
1Key Laboratory of CNC Equipment Reliability, Ministry of Education, Jilin University, Changchun 130022, China.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|May 4, 2026
Summary
This study introduces a novel two-phase hybrid stochastic degradation model for harmonic reducers. The model accurately captures non-stationary degradation, significantly improving reliability assessment compared to traditional methods.
Area of Science:
- Mechanical Engineering
- Reliability Engineering
- Stochastic Processes
Background:
- Harmonic reducers show complex, phase-dependent degradation patterns.
- Classical models struggle with non-stationary and phase-specific reliability assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an advanced reliability model for harmonic reducers.
- To accurately assess reliability considering phase-dependent degradation behaviors.
Main Methods:
- Proposed a two-phase hybrid stochastic degradation process (Wiener and Inverse Gaussian processes).
- Incorporated sample-level variability in transition times.
- Utilized Schwarz Information Criterion for change point detection and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for parameter inference.
Main Results:
- Identified a change point in degradation for all tested products.
- The proposed model demonstrated superior goodness of fit.
- Achieved significantly lower reliability assessment bias (0.06%) compared to Wiener (32%) and IG (9.9%) models.
Conclusions:
- The hybrid model effectively captures phase-dependent degradation characteristics of harmonic reducers.
- The proposed approach provides more accurate and realistic reliability assessments.
- This framework enhances predictive maintenance and operational safety for harmonic reducers.
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