Evaluating COVID-19 pandemic impact on melanoma incidence and prognostic factors in regions with different infection

Cecilia Sand1,2, Dilki Jayasinghe3, Rory Wolfe4

  • 1Dermatology and Venereology, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University; and Department of Dermatology, Skåne University Hospital, Sweden.

Abstract

Insights

The COVID-19 pandemic reduced melanoma diagnoses, particularly thin melanomas, and slightly worsened prognostic factors in Sweden and Victoria. Victoria experienced a more prolonged impact due to stricter COVID-19 controls.

Area of Science:

  • Oncology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic caused global disruptions in cancer care, including melanoma diagnosis and treatment.
  • Concerns arose regarding potential delays and their impact on patient outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare changes in invasive cutaneous melanoma incidence and prognostic factors.
  • To analyze these changes in two regions with different COVID-19 control strategies: Victoria, Australia, and Sweden.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective population-based registry study using Swedish and Australian melanoma data (2013-2021).
  • Trend analyses considered long-term trends and seasonality.
  • Regression models compared prognostic variables (Breslow thickness, ulceration, lymph node status) before and during COVID-19, using March 1, 2020, as the interruption point.

Main Results:

  • Melanoma diagnoses declined in Victoria, especially in younger patients (<50 years).
  • Median Breslow thickness remained stable, but distribution shifted, indicating a slight increase in thickness.
  • Ulceration odds increased in Sweden; lymph node metastasis rates were stable in both regions.
  • Both regions saw an immediate incidence drop, mainly in thin melanomas, with Victoria showing a persistent decrease and Sweden realigning with pre-COVID trends.

Conclusions:

  • COVID-19 significantly impacted melanoma incidence and prognostic features in both regions.
  • A reduction in thin melanoma incidence and a slight worsening of prognostic markers were observed.
  • Victoria's stricter, longer-lasting COVID-19 measures may explain its more sustained impact on melanoma care.

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