Decoding the future of India with time series insights into carbon emissions and ecological footprints

This study projects India's per capita CO₂emissions and ecological footprint in order to assess future sustainability concerns and policy requirements. The study is based on historical data for India from 1900 to 2020, including economic, population, and energy consumption parameters. Long-term trends and seasonal fluctuations in the data are captured by time series forecasting models, namely the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Given India's reliance on fossil fuels and its quick economic growth, energy consumption and GDP stand out as the two factors that contribute most to the rise in emissions. The findings show that environmental pressures in India are continuing to rise. By 2030, per capita CO₂ emissions are expected to climb to about 2.3 metric tons, and the ecological footprint is also expected to continue to grow. The results highlight how urgent it is to change the anticipated course by policy measures. Stricter emissions policies, increased use of renewable energy, advancements in energy efficiency, and the implementation of carbon capture technology are important steps. This study supports India's climate goals and sustainable development initiatives by supplementing integrated assessment models with clear and understandable baseline projections.