Structural analysis of the rural household food security system in Gorgan County, Iran

Food security is a complex, dynamic, and multidimensional issue, particularly critical for rural households facing intertwined economic, social, infrastructural, and environmental challenges. This study aims to analyze the structural configuration of the rural household food security system in Gorgan County, northern Iran, using Interpretive Structural Modeling. Thirty-four key factors were identified across five major components-economic, infrastructure & access, socio-demographic, nutrition & health, and external risks- based on literature review and expert input. A structured questionnaire was administered to local public sector experts to quantify the direct and indirect relationships among these factors. Unlike most Iranian rural food security studies that mainly report determinant sets, we combine ISM with MICMAC cross-impact analysis to quantify direct and indirect interdependencies and distinguish upstream drivers from dependent outcomes for scenario-oriented policy design. The findings revealed that the rural household food security system is structurally unstable, primarily influenced by economic factors and external risks such as inflation and climate change. Among factors, inflation has the strongest influence on the system, while household head income is the most critical in terms of dependence. Additionally, components like infrastructure & access and nutrition & health play long-term, outcome-focused roles rather than acting as short-term drivers. The results underscore the importance of prioritizing economic empowerment, enhancing adaptive capacity, and strengthening multi-level policy coordination to improve rural household food security. The proposed analytical framework provides a useful tool for scenario development and evidence-based policymaking within rural development strategies.