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Updated: May 6, 2026

A Step-by-Step Implementation of DeepBehavior, Deep Learning Toolbox for Automated Behavior Analysis
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Zero-shot traffic flow prediction with foundation models: a comparison with deep learning approaches.

Yue Li1, Qunshan Zhao2, Mingshu Wang3

  • 1Urban Big Data Centre, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow, 7 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, UK.

Scientific Reports
|May 4, 2026
PubMed
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Foundation models like Lag-Llama and Chronos excel at zero-shot traffic flow prediction, outperforming deep learning models. These pre-trained models offer efficient, accurate traffic forecasting without extensive task-specific training.

Area of Science:

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Transportation Engineering
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Traffic flow prediction is vital for urban mobility, congestion reduction, and road safety.
  • Deep learning models offer accuracy but demand large datasets and extensive training.
  • Foundation models demonstrate strong performance in time series prediction tasks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the efficacy of foundation models (Lag-Llama, Chronos) for zero-shot traffic flow prediction.
  • To compare the predictive accuracy of foundation models against traditional deep learning models.
  • To analyze the impact of model size, context length, and training data on foundation model performance.

Main Methods:

  • Application of two foundation models, Lag-Llama and Chronos, for zero-shot traffic flow prediction.
Keywords:
Deep learningFoundation modelsTime-series predictionTraffic flows

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  • Comparative analysis of foundation model performance against established deep learning models.
  • Investigation of factors influencing prediction accuracy, including context length and model size.
  • Main Results:

    • Foundation models significantly outperform deep learning models in traffic flow prediction.
    • Foundation models demonstrate effectiveness under both normal conditions and disruptive events.
    • Larger models and longer context lengths improve accuracy but increase inference time.

    Conclusions:

    • Foundation models offer a practical and efficient alternative for traffic flow prediction, requiring less data and training time.
    • Model selection based on comprehensive training data is crucial for optimal zero-shot performance.
    • Foundation models represent a promising advancement for real-world intelligent transportation systems.