Pollution cost dynamics and regime transitions in emerging Asia: a dissipative-Logit approach

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Sustainability Science
• Econometrics

Background:

• Emerging Asian economies grapple with industrialization and environmental degradation.
• Conventional emissions metrics overlook broader economic costs of environmental damage.
• A novel pollution cost indicator is introduced for policy relevance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess environmental degradation costs in Emerging Asia.
• To identify drivers of high-cost environmental regimes.
• To evaluate the impact of adaptive capacity and renewable energy on sustainability.

Main Methods:

• Hybrid methodology combining physics-inspired dissipative model and non-linear Logit model.
• Panel data analysis from 2015-2024 for key Asian economies.
• Identification of entropy-driven stress flows, resilience thresholds, and probabilistic dynamics.

Main Results:

• Environmental vulnerability, carbon emissions, financed emissions, and disaster frequency increase high-cost regime probability.
• Adaptability and renewable energy penetration reduce this probability by 20-30%.
• An indicative resilience threshold ([Formula: see text]= -0.569) was identified, beyond which costs escalate sharply.

Conclusions:

• Renewable energy and adaptive capacity are critical for mitigating pollution costs.
• Green financial regulation is essential for sustainability-oriented growth.
• Policy interventions must address the interplay between environmental stressors and economic costs.