From coverage to capability: assessing equitable access to community-based senior meal programs in Shanghai

Shanghai is undergoing rapid population ageing, increasing demand for equitable community-based care. Government-led senior meal programs are a key local food-environment action to support healthy ageing in place, yet evidence on their effective service capability and spatial equity remains limited.

This study estimated older residents' access to meal services using an improved Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (Ga2SFCA) model, integrating 2025 gridded population data (aged ≥ 60) with geocoded facility locations and district-level demographic calibration. Facility supply was parameterized as meals-per-session capacity under both policy-minimum and robustness scenarios. Overall inequality was assessed using the Gini coefficient, spatial clustering of supply-demand mismatch was examined using Local Moran's I, and public-commercial coordination was evaluated using the Local Colocation Quotient (LCLQ).

Citywide inequality in per-capita meal-service capability was substantial (Gini = 0.619), demonstrating a pronounced urban-rural contrast. Capability was lower in central urban areas and adjacent neighborhoods, whereas suburban town centers exhibited relatively higher capability; nevertheless, peripheral service gaps persisted. Supply-demand mismatch showed significant spatial clustering. LCLQ results indicated greater spatial feasibility for government-guided commercial participation in central districts, while peri-urban areas demonstrated weaker coordination.

Planning based solely on administrative coverage targets is insufficient. A capability-oriented framework is required, prioritizing joint public-commercial provision where spatial feasibility is high and targeted interventions in peripheral blind spots to improve equitable access for older residents.