Epidemiological trends and burden of gout in China and the European Union: a GBD 2023 and Mendelian randomization...

Gout is one of the most common inflammatory arthritides and represents a growing health burden worldwide. This study compares the disease burden of gout and its attributable risk factors between China and European Union (EU) countries from 1990 to 2023 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (GBD 2023). In addition, the study evaluates potential causal relationships between key risk factors and gout and projects future trends in disease burden.

Using GBD 2023 data, we analyzed the epidemiology of gout in China and EU countries. Analyses included descriptive statistics and age- and sex-specific comparisons. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percentage changes (AAPC) to assess long-term trends. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to project gout burden trends in China and EU countries from 2024 to 2040. In addition, a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach was used to investigate the potential causal relationship between key risk factors and gout at the genetic level.

In 2023, China's age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), prevalence rate (ASPR), and disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) for gout were 151.27/100,000, 809.69/100,000, and 25.14/100,000, respectively, all higher than in 1990. In comparison, EU countries showed lower levels for these indicators in both 1990 and 2023. Joinpoint regression analysis demonstrated an overall increasing trend in gout burden in both China and the EU between 1990 and 2023, although China experienced a brief decline in APC between 1990 and 1994. The burden of gout was higher among males than among females. Projections suggest that ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR will continue to increase in both China and European countries between 2024 and 2040. Mendelian randomization analysis further indicated a significant positive causal relationship between body mass index (BMI) and gout.

This study combines GBD 2023 epidemiological data with Mendelian randomization analysis to characterize trends in the burden of gout in China and EU countries. The findings show a continuing increase in gout burden over time, particularly in China. The identified causal association between elevated BMI and gout highlights the importance of addressing modifiable metabolic risk factors to help reduce the future burden of gout. Key Points • An increasing burden of gout could be observed in China and the European Union from 1990 to 2023. • A higher age-standardized burden of gout was observed in China than in the European Union. • Future projections indicate that the burden of gout will continue to increase through 2040. • A causal  association between elevated body mass index and gout risk was supported by Mendelian randomization analysis.