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An Indicator contribution-oriented assessment framework for identifying dominant fire risk drivers in cable tunnels:

Liming Li1,2, Yongyu Wang1,2, Bo Liu1,2

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Fire risk in urban cable tunnels is driven by a few key factors, not all indicators equally. Structural integrity and operational management are the most influential elements for effective fire safety.

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Area of Science:

  • Civil Engineering
  • Fire Safety Engineering
  • Risk Management

Background:

  • Cable tunnels are critical urban infrastructure with high fire risk due to dense cabling and confined spaces.
  • Current fire risk management faces challenges in quantification and identifying dominant risk factors across tunnel segments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a contribution-oriented fire risk assessment framework for cable tunnels.
  • To identify and quantify the dominant drivers of fire risk variation in tunnel segments.
  • To enhance the interpretability and practical value of fire risk assessment for targeted safety management.

Main Methods:

  • Established a fire risk indicator system using accident data, standards, and expert knowledge.
  • Calculated composite fire risk indices for tunnel segments.
  • Employed perturbation-based contribution analysis to determine indicator influence.
  • Conducted scenario-based analyses for evaluating management strategies.

Main Results:

  • Identified a limited number of dominant drivers significantly influencing cable tunnel fire risk.
  • Structural integrity factors (e.g., fire door integrity, joint defects) and operational/management indicators were found to be most impactful.
  • Revealed significant spatial heterogeneity in fire risk distribution and varied responses to interventions.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed framework effectively identifies dominant fire risk drivers and their contributions.
  • Results support targeted risk control and resource prioritization in cable tunnel safety.
  • Enhanced understanding of risk drivers improves the interpretability and practical application of fire risk assessments.