A sensitivity analysis approach to principal stratification with a continuous longitudinal intermediate outcome:...

Causal inference in the presence of intermediate variables is a challenging problem in many applications. Principal stratification (PS) provides a framework to estimate principal causal effects (PCE) in such settings. However, existing PS methods primarily focus on settings with binary intermediate variables. We propose a novel approach to estimate PCE with continuous intermediate variables in the context of stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs). Our method leverages the time-varying treatment assignment in SW-CRTs to calibrate sensitivity parameters and identify the PCE under realistic assumptions. We demonstrate the application of our approach using data from a cohort SW-CRT evaluating the effect of a crowdsourcing intervention on HIV testing uptake among men who have sex with men in China, with social norms as a continuous intermediate variable. The proposed methodology expands the scope of PS to accommodate continuous variables and provides a practical tool for causal inference in SW-CRTs.