Development and internal validation of a risk-stratification model for complicated appendicitis in the elderly: a...

The clinical presentation of acute appendicitis in elderly patients is often atypical, leading to delayed diagnosis and a substantially elevated risk of complicated appendicitis. This progression complicates treatment strategies and negatively impacts prognostic outcomes. Currently, there is a lack of simple and practical tools to help identify complicated appendicitis at presentation in elderly patients. The objective of this study was to investigate admission-time factors associated with complicated appendicitis in the elderly and to develop a model for admission-time identification/risk stratification.

Clinical data from 288 elderly patients with acute appendicitis admitted to the General Surgery Department of Jiangsu Province (Suqian)Hospital, between January 2016 and December 2024 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were categorized into a complicated appendicitis (CA) group (n = 117) and an uncomplicated appendicitis (UCA) group (n = 171) based on postoperative pathology. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors and to develop a risk-stratification model. Model performance was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, calibration curves, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Multivariate analysis showed that white blood cell count (WBC) ≥ 12.81 × 10⁹/L (OR = 2.78), lymphocyte count ≤ 0.955 × 10⁹/L (OR = 0.27), and C-reactive protein (CRP) ≥ 56.085 mg/L (OR = 20.42) were independently associated with complicated appendicitis at admission. The constructed risk-stratification model exhibited an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85, with a sensitivity of 81.2%, and a specificity of 84.8%. The H-L test indicated satisfactory model calibration (P = 0.933).

The model based on admission WBC, lymphocyte count, and CRP showed good discriminatory ability for identifying complicated appendicitis in elderly patients at presentation. As an admission-time risk-stratification tool, it may assist clinical assessment and triage.