Spatiotemporal patterns and future trends of global ischemic stroke burden

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Global Health
• Neurology

Background:

• Ischemic stroke is a major global health challenge with significant regional and demographic variations.
• Existing research lacks integrated analyses of long-term spatiotemporal patterns, sociodemographic factors, and future projections for ischemic stroke.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze long-term spatiotemporal trends in ischemic stroke burden globally from 1990 to 2021.
• To investigate disparities in ischemic stroke by age, sex, region, and sociodemographic index (SDI).
• To project future ischemic stroke burden and identify key demographic drivers.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database (1990-2021) for 204 countries.
• Analyzed age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) stratified by demographics.
• Employed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for future disease burden projections (2022-2041).

Main Results:

• Global age-standardized incidence and mortality declined, but prevalence showed a modest decrease (1990-2021).
• Middle SDI regions exhibited increasing prevalence and incidence, while high SDI regions saw the greatest mortality reductions.
• Significant sex and age disparities were observed, with projections indicating a ~15.3% rise in global prevalence by 2041, driven by females.

Conclusions:

• A paradoxical increase in ischemic stroke prevalence coexists with declining mortality and disability.
• Widening disparities related to sex and SDI necessitate tailored prevention and intervention strategies.
• Future projections underscore the need for gender-sensitive policies to manage the evolving global ischemic stroke burden.